Week:
S&P500: +3.48% FTSE100: +1.25% Gold: -0.05% Bitcoin: +2.51%
YTD:
S&P500: -0.61% FTSE100: +6.18% Gold: +9.29% Bitcoin: -19.61%
Ceasefire Hopes Faded. Macro Is Back In Charge.
Source: MarketPulse (OANDA) + S&P Global | Week ending 10 April 2026
Five trading sessions. One explosive relief rally. Then the reminder that the war premium does not leave quietly.
What drove markets this week
The week started with markets leaning into de escalation. Headlines pointing to a US Iran ceasefire triggered a sharp unwind of the fear trade. Equities surged, led by tech. The US dollar softened as the safe haven bid faded. Oil dropped hard as traders stripped out the inflation hedge premium.
That optimism did not hold. As the week progressed, talks repeatedly ran into friction and confidence faded fast. Iran pushed back on the US terms, and the market treated every update as conditional. The price action quickly reverted to a familiar rule: oil is the scoreboard. When WTI pushed back above $100, risk appetite cooled. When crude eased, equities tried to hold onto gains.
By Thursday, volatility had largely retraced toward pre conflict levels. That is supportive for positioning, but it can also be a warning sign. If negotiations deteriorate again, markets are not paying much for protection.
Friday brought the data back into focus. US CPI showed the first clear evidence of the commodity shock landing in the numbers, with headline inflation at 3.3% YoY, driven by energy and food. Canada’s employment report was broadly in line.
Inflation is now in the data, not just the narrative
The CPI print matters because it is the first clean read of how much the energy move is feeding through. The message is not that inflation is out of control, but that the market now has to respect a more awkward mix: geopolitics that can reprice oil overnight, and inflation that is no longer purely theoretical. If producer prices start to echo the same shock, the “sticky inflation” fear comes back quickly.
Looking ahead
This week has two moving parts. Geopolitics can still override everything, but the macro calendar is now where the next debate will be fought.
Mainland China and the UK publish GDP updates, while the US and eurozone deliver industrial production and inflation related data. The question is whether growth is holding up while energy costs push price pressures higher.
China’s Q1 GDP is expected to pick up to 5.0% from 4.5% in Q4, and the market will care most about the composition: export and manufacturing strength versus any sign that domestic consumption is improving.
In the UK, the GDP update will help map the pre war trend, with PMI surveys hinting at a brief February lift followed by a softer March.
In Europe, production, trade and inflation prints matter because the ECB has already shifted more hawkish after the energy shock. Another inflation surprise keeps an April hike firmly on the table.
In the US, industrial production and producer prices are the key. PPI is often where war related cost pressure shows first. If those costs jump and pass through risk rises, markets will worry about inflation staying sticky even if growth slows.
If ceasefire talks deteriorate further, expect oil to move first and everything else to follow.
.svg)
.png)
