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Written by Curation

Why Defence Is Becoming a Structural Trade

Venezuela isn’t just a story about oil, it's about the wider implications to geo-politics. The capture of Maduro and US intervention instantly reframed the situation from sanctions management to regime enforcement

What was said

Venezuela isn’t just a story about oil, it's about the wider implications to geo-politics. The capture of Maduro and US intervention instantly reframed the situation from sanctions management to regime enforcement. Naval movements, tanker blockades, airspace control and regional signalling all came into play. Oil markets reacted first, but the subtext has far broader implications. Venezuela sits at the intersection of energy security, US power projection, China’s strategic interests and regional stability. This wasn’t an isolated action, it fits a broader pattern of rising geopolitical enforcement rather than diplomacy.

*Why we give a ****

Defence is no longer a hedge, it’s a core long for 2026 portfolios. Venezuela shows how energy, trade routes and political outcomes are now enforced with hard power. Every disruption,  whether oil flows, shipping lanes or regime transitions, pulls defence spending with it. Surveillance, logistics, naval presence, cyber, aerospace and defence services all move before reconstruction or normalisation begins. The market still treats defence as episodic; the reality is structural. With flashpoints spanning Venezuela, Iran, Ukraine and Taiwan, defence isn’t about one conflict, it’s about a world where security constraints increasingly shape economic outcomes. In that environment, defence spend isn’t cyclical, it’s persistent, and still under appreciated.

Relevant Stocks: LSE:BAB, LSE:KIST , VSE:RENK , LSE:BP, LSE:CNE

Stock of the week

Seraphim Space Investment Trust share price has surged around 40% since 19th December after its largest holding, ICEYE, secured a €1.7 billion, five-year contract to provide space-based reconnaissance for the German Armed Forces. The deal, signed through ICEYE’s joint venture with Rheinmetall, validates satellite intelligence as core defence infrastructure rather than experimental technology. ICEYE was last valued at €2.4 billion and accounts for roughly 35% of SSIT’s NAV, giving the trust direct leverage to rising European defence and space spending.

If defence budgets continue to pivot toward AI-enabled satellite intelligence, SSIT’s recent re-rating could mark the start of a broader reassessment rather than a one-off move.

View Equity story here

📣 Market Summary

N.AMERICA | EUROPE | WORLDWIDE

Markets entered 2026 on an unsettled footing as Big Tech weakness, sharp moves in commodities, and renewed geopolitical risk disrupted what had been a strong close to 2025. De-risking across equities and crypto dominated the final trading days of the year, before a partial rebound led by AI hardware, energy and crypto. Early trading in Asia suggests investors are, for now, willing to look through the weekend’s geopolitical shock... Continue reading...

Mentions: S&P 500 | NASDAQ 100 | CRYPTO | RUSSELL 2000 | AI | TRUMP |  AMD | NVIDIA |

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