Markets Went Parabolic. Now They Are Waiting.

Source: MarketPulse (OANDA) | Week ending 17 April 2026

What drove markets last week

The week opened with a continuation of the peace trade. The S&P 500 broke above 7,000 for the first time since January on Tuesday, carving out new all-time highs in what amounted to a 15% extension from the post-ceasefire low. The move was heavy on short-covering and thin on fundamental conviction. Nasdaq led the charge, with Microsoft and Tesla closing up 4.6% and 7.8% respectively on the day of the breakout. Market breadth improved sharply: the share of Nasdaq 100 stocks trading above their 20-day moving average surged from 11% in late March to 80% by the end of the week.

The ceiling arrived quickly. US-Iran talks expected on Thursday were pushed to the weekend by President Trump, and crude oil bounced back above $90 on the absence of concrete headlines. Friday was a grind rather than a sprint.

One genuine positive landed on Wednesday: Israel and Lebanon agreed a ceasefire, the first direct framework between the two countries since 1993. Iran had listed this as a precondition for joining the second round of talks. Markets cheered briefly before refocusing on the Strait of Hormuz, which remained under US blockade throughout the week. WTI held stubbornly above $90.

The FTSE 100 was a relative bright spot. The index closed the week consolidating between 10,550 and 10,700, well above the 10,000 psychological level that had been a key battleground in March. The index traded comfortably above its 100-day MA at 10,198 and 200-day MA at 9,761, and the daily RSI finished the week at 58.3, with room to extend toward the 10,786 resistance before momentum becomes a concern. The structural story for the FTSE remained a buy-the-dip regime: as long as the index holds 10,500 on a closing basis, the path of least resistance was higher.

On earnings, the financials season wrapped up without much drama. Netflix beat on subscribers but issued confusing guidance and fell in after-hours trading. The Fed offered little clarity: NY Fed president Williams reinforced that central bankers were genuinely uncertain about what to communicate while geopolitics and inflation pulled in opposite directions.

The setup is fragile in both directions

The S&P closed last week at all-time highs on a ceasefire that prediction markets put at only a 37% chance of converting into a real deal by April 30. Oil above $90 with the Strait still blocked is not consistent with the inflation outlook that would justify these multiples. At the same time, breadth was broad by Friday, positioning was not stretched, and any credible progress on reopening the Hormuz would immediately take crude toward $70.

The market finished the week not pricing in failure. But it was no longer pricing in euphoria either.

Looking ahead

The second round of US-Iran talks over the weekend is the only thing that matters for this week. If they produced concrete progress on the Strait, expect crude to drop and equities to push further. If talks stalled or broke down, the all-time highs in equities look like a very exposed position.

Beyond geopolitics, the mega-cap earnings cycle begins properly this week. TSM reports and the market will focus on AI infrastructure demand signals and any commentary on supply chain disruption from the conflict. ASML numbers will speak to the same theme from the European side.

The Nasdaq 100 opens Monday stabilising above its former all-time high at 26,288, having gapped down 1.1% this morning on renewed Strait of Hormuz hostilities. The 26,288 to 26,142 support zone is the line to watch. Bulls need it to hold to maintain the near-term upside case toward 27,140 and 27,380. A break below 26,142 reopens 25,900.

For the FTSE, 10,500 on a closing basis remains the key level. A break above 10,700 opens the door toward 10,786.

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