Week:
S&P500: -1.2% FTSE100: -4.6% Gold: -4.9% Bitcoin: -6.7%
YTD:
S&P500: -1.7% FTSE100: +3.5% Gold: +17.9% Bitcoin: -22.5%
Oil Shock and Weak Jobs Data Rattle Markets
Source: Connect Weekly | Week ending 6 March 2026
US equities endured another turbulent week as the escalating conflict with Iran pushed energy prices sharply higher and a weak labour report raised fresh concerns about economic momentum. The S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 all finished the week lower, with energy stocks the standout winners and travel-related names among the hardest hit. Crypto markets also struggled to hold gains as geopolitical uncertainty dominated risk sentiment.
What drove markets this week
Markets began the week with sharp swings following US strikes on Iran. Monday’s trading was volatile but ultimately constructive, with the major indices closing modestly higher as investors initially shrugged off the conflict. Energy and defence names surged on expectations of rising military spending and tighter oil supply, while airlines and cruise operators sold off as fuel prices climbed.
Tuesday brought renewed selling pressure. Stocks dropped across the board as oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz slowed and traders reassessed the economic impact of the conflict. Rising crude prices also shifted expectations for monetary policy, reducing the probability of near-term rate cuts. AI infrastructure stocks and semiconductors were particularly weak as geopolitical tensions raised the prospect of additional export restrictions.
Midweek rebound as risk appetite returns
Markets recovered on Wednesday as stronger economic data and renewed retail enthusiasm helped stabilize sentiment. A rebound in cryptocurrencies lifted a range of crypto-adjacent companies, while chipmakers and AI infrastructure names bounced after investors bought the dip. Consumer discretionary and technology stocks led the recovery, though the broader tone remained fragile.
Oil surge dominates late-week trading
Thursday saw equities retreat again as crude oil surged to its highest level since 2024. Energy companies rallied strongly, while airlines, travel stocks, and consumer names fell on concerns that higher fuel costs would squeeze margins and household spending. Technology stocks also weakened as investors rotated toward defensive sectors.
Friday: Jobs shock adds to market stress
Selling accelerated on Friday after the February employment report showed the US economy losing 92,000 jobs, far worse than expectations for modest growth. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4 percent. At the same time, warnings from energy officials that the Iran conflict could push oil toward $150 per barrel intensified fears of a stagflationary scenario. Stocks across all major indices fell sharply, while energy names continued to climb.
Weekend developments
Over the weekend the new Iranian leader was chosen, the son of the previous ruler, despite international pressure for broader political change. Oil prices opened the new week above $100 per barrel for the first time since 2022, reflecting heightened concerns about supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.
Looking ahead
Markets now face a complex mix of geopolitical risk and economic uncertainty. The path of oil prices will be the dominant near-term driver of sentiment, while investors will also watch whether the labour market weakness seen in February proves temporary or signals a broader slowdown. With volatility elevated and leadership shifting toward energy and defence, the next phase of the market may depend less on technology momentum and more on macro stability.
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