Week:
S&P500: [+0.67%] FTSE100: [-0.27% ] Gold: [-0.39%] Bitcoin: [-0.61%]
YTD:
S&P500: [+4.47% ] FTSE100: [+4.30% ] Gold: [+8.89%] Bitcoin: [ -11.09%]
The Narrow Rally Held. The Diplomacy Did Not.
Source: MarketPulse (OANDA) | Week ending 24 April 2026
What drove markets last week
The S&P 500 advanced 0.7% last week, while the Dow Jones closed little changed. Most of the index gains were concentrated in Nasdaq, semiconductors, and a small number of government backed names such as Intel, which rallied a further 20% on earnings to take its run since the July government stake announcement to 320%. Monday opened lower after the weekend's US-Iran talks failed to materialise and WTI gapped 5.8% higher, though buyers stepped in on the dip. Tuesday was the weakest session of the week: Warsh's Senate hearing flagged the end of an expanded Fed balance sheet, then late-session reports of the Islamabad talks being cancelled drove stocks sharply lower into the close, before Trump's after-hours ceasefire extension lifted futures. From Wednesday onward, Tech, semis and crypto extended decisively while the Dow and S&P did not follow through. Thursday's PMI prints were the strongest in years (US Manufacturing at four-year highs, Services beating at 51.3), but a meaningful share of the strength was front-loaded ordering against supply chain risk. Friday saw Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf ousted from the negotiating team, weakening what little credibility remained in the diplomatic track.
The breadth problem and the Hormuz problem
The rally is unusually narrow for an all-time-high regime. Mega-cap Tech and a few government backed names account for most of the index gains, with defensive sectors bid on Thursday in a move that looked more like rotation than a genuine return to risk. Underneath, WTI has gradually established a higher floor: it has not traded below $92 even on ceasefire-extension days, and twice this week it touched $100 before easing back. As long as the Strait stays blocked, pressure on Iran builds and a deal becomes increasingly likely, but the floor under crude rises with it. The FTSE, sitting on a +6.6% YTD with Gold also up double digits, is reflecting the inflation-aware view more accurately than Wall Street.
Looking ahead
The diplomatic track is the only headline of real consequence. Iranian negotiators returning to Islamabad is a modest positive, but the team is in disarray and Tehran's preconditions on lifting the blockade are non-starters for Washington. Another short extension is the base case. A genuine framework would push oil sharply toward $80 and broaden the rally; a breakdown would take WTI through $100 and place the narrow Tech rally under genuine pressure.
On the macro calendar, the most significant mega-cap earnings of the season are reported this week, with focus on AI infrastructure demand, capex guidance, and supply-chain exposure. US Core PCE at the back of the week is the key data point: the first reading that fully reflects the energy shock feeding into services prices. An above-consensus print would revive concerns about sticky inflation just as Warsh takes the chair.
Levels: Nasdaq needs ~27,140 to hold to keep 27,500+ within reach; a loss of 26,800 brings breadth concerns to the fore. S&P needs 7,150 as a base or risks a second test of 7,000. WTI's $92 to $100 range is one to fade at the extremes. FTSE 10,500 remains the key support level.
.svg)
.png)
