The Slice is a monthly portfolio and market update on Ecora Royalties written by Curation, bringing together asset-level developments, broader market dynamics and perspectives shared amongst Curation's sophisticated investor network.

Ecora Royalties: +0.38% | FTSE ALLSHARE: -4.47%
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Portfolio and Company Updates

Ecora Royalties. FY25 marks the moment critical minerals became the portfolio's centre of gravity

FY25 confirmed a structural portfolio pivot, with critical minerals now at 65% of portfolio contribution, up from roughly 50% the prior year, reducing earnings sensitivity to coal and improving the long-term quality of cash flows. Q4 contribution of $14.3m doubled year-on-year despite coal headwinds, underscoring the resilience of the new mix. Copper sits at the heart of the equity story, now representing roughly half of estimated NAV across eight assets spanning producing, development, and early-stage royalties. Portfolio contribution is forecast to grow from $57m in FY25 to over $100m by 2030 at consensus copper prices, with significant further upside at higher price scenarios, and critically, no additional capital from Ecora is required to deliver this growth, meaning incremental revenue falls almost entirely to free cash flow.

Base metals delivered a standout year, with contribution rising to $28.5m from $11.4m the prior year as Voisey's Bay normalised, the Mimbula stream acquisition ramped, and copper price leverage compounded operational gains. Volume increases at both Voisey's Bay and Mantos Blancos were driven by operational ramp-ups rather than price alone, providing a more durable earnings base heading into 2026. Meanwhile, Kestrel's contribution fell to $17.5m on lower realised coal prices, underscoring the portfolio's declining reliance on steelmaking coal and its alignment with electrification themes favoured by long-term capital. 2026 is expected to be the last meaningful year of coal production, with coal-free status targeted post-2030.

Commodity price tailwinds are strengthening across the board: cobalt prices have doubled since early 2025 following DRC export quotas, directly benefiting Voisey's Bay where guidance has been lifted for FY26; rare earth prices rose sharply ahead of the Phalaborwa DFS; and gold prices near record highs have revived the EVBC royalty, with the operator commencing regional exploration. These are not just macro tailwinds but direct revenue catalysts given Ecora's royalty structure.

Visibility into 2026 growth is clear: Mimbula expansion continues to ramp toward materially higher throughput, Mantos Blancos is performing at record levels, and Santo Domingo FID is targeted for H2 2026, which at spot copper and gold prices would generate over $35m per annum for Ecora. Net debt of $85.5m sits well below the peak of $124.6m, demonstrating effective deleveraging following the Mimbula acquisition and solid cash conversion from the portfolio. Management has signalled capacity for continued balance sheet improvement alongside selective accretive royalty and stream acquisitions into 2026.

KGHM Polska Miedź. The margin recovery is real, and the market hasn't caught up

KGHM's FY25 results confirmed a decisive shift from volume to margin, with adjusted EBITDA surging 58% to PLN 8.46bn on revenues of PLN 35.3bn and net profit recovering to PLN 2.87bn. The operational turnaround underpins the numbers: C1 cash costs fell roughly 7%, operating costs declined 9%, and payable copper production of 729.7kt beat budget targets, whilst a major shutdown at the Głogów I smelter was completed ahead of schedule. Silver production of 1,341 tonnes came in slightly below the prior year's record on domestic maintenance but remains a meaningful earnings contributor at current spot. Management's pivot to profitability through efficiency is backed by a clean balance sheet at under 1x Net Debt/EBITDA, substantial capex headroom, and the feasibility study for a fourth production line at Sierra Gorda in Chile, which could materially lower consolidated unit costs over the next 24 months. Analysts project strong annual earnings growth over three years as cost correctives fully bed in. With the global copper supply gap set to widen in 2026 and the Żelazny Most tailings risk now formally contained, KGHM is positioned as a direct beneficiary of the structural deficit thesis at a valuation that has yet to price in the margin recovery. For Ecora Royalties, KGHM is the operator of the Carlota copper mine in Arizona, over which Ecora holds a 5.0% NSR royalty with approximately 11 years of remaining mine life, providing long-duration exposure to a major copper producer whose earnings trajectory is inflecting higher.

Fortescue completes takeover of Alta Copper, bringing a major new operator to Ecora's Cañariaco royalty

Fortescue has completed its acquisition of Alta Copper, taking full ownership of the Cañariaco copper project in Peru. The project is expected to produce meaningful volumes of copper, alongside gold and silver, over a long mine life. For Ecora Royalties, which holds a 0.5% royalty on Cañariaco, this is an important development. The arrival of Fortescue, a large and experienced operator, reduces execution risk and improves the chances of the project moving forward.

Why a landmark land exchange could reshape America's copper supply story

Resolution Copper, a joint venture between BHP (45%) and Rio Tinto (55%, operator), has completed a Federal land exchange with the US Forest Service, receiving approximately 2,400 acres above the orebody in exchange for roughly 5,400 acres of environmentally and culturally sensitive land transferred into National Conservation Areas. The milestone clears a key regulatory hurdle for what could become the largest copper mine in the US, with BHP calling it "a game changer for US domestic supply." Resolution Copper will now advance phased technical work to define the orebody and inform future investment decisions. For Ecora Royalties, both BHP and Rio Tinto are key portfolio operators, with a 2.0% NSR royalty at West Musgrave (BHP-operated, Australia) and an indirect interest in a 7% gross revenue royalty at LIORC (Rio Tinto-operated, Canada), reinforcing Ecora's alignment with both majors as they deepen their commitment to long-life copper assets.

Read the investment case in Ecora Royalties' Showcase.

Market Updates

Copper: Secular Demand Holds Firm as Conflict Weighs on Sentiment

Copper prices fell nearly 10% through March as U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran injected fresh uncertainty into global markets. Yet the sell-off sits uneasily alongside the structural picture. Freeport-McMoRan's CEO Kathleen Quirk, speaking at CERAWeek in Houston, was unambiguous: the drivers of copper demand — electrification, data centres, AI infrastructure — are secular, not cyclical, and she does not expect the conflict to derail them. Conversations with Freeport's own customers were dominated by the tech sector's need for the metal, and the world's largest publicly traded copper company produced 3.38 billion pounds globally last year with domestic U.S. production sold entirely at home. In Chile, Freeport filed an environmental application for a $7.5 billion expansion of its El Abra mine, a signal that long-horizon capital commitments are continuing regardless of near-term noise. Copper accounts for roughly half of Ecora Royalties' portfolio, concentrated in OECD jurisdictions where long-life royalty exposure and structural supply constraints favour duration over short-term volume growth.

Curation Updates

Uranium's investment case continued to be framed less as a commodity trade and more as a long-duration infrastructure story. Uranium Energy Corp drew attention as a company deliberately structured as a leveraged balance-sheet vehicle, holding approximately $500m in cash with no debt and multiple in-situ recovery fields across Wyoming and Texas ready to activate into a market where structural tightness is building steadily. The macro backdrop strengthened further when GE Vernova and Hitachi announced plans to construct nuclear reactors in Tennessee and Alabama in a programme worth up to $40bn, a concrete signal that governments are committing capital to nuclear at scale. Energy security, sharpened by the Hormuz disruption, is pulling long-term demand forward regardless of near-term spot pricing. Ecora Royalties holds uranium exposure through a 2.0% NSR over NexGen Energy's Patterson Corridor East project in Canada, where continued high-grade drilling results are extending confidence in the geological model and the long-term relevance of the royalty.

While rare earths supply story tightened further in March as Japan accelerated state-backed deep-sea extraction, retrieving mineral-rich mud from 6,000m depths near Minamitorishima within its exclusive economic zone. China still controls approximately 60% of global mining and over 90% of refining capacity, and fresh export restrictions from Beijing reinforced the urgency of building alternative supply chains across allied nations. The community framed rare earth supply outcomes as increasingly shaped by government policy and strategic alliances rather than commodity pricing alone, a dynamic that favours long-dated projects with secure off-take and financing structures. Ecora Royalties' rare earths exposure comes via Rainbow Rare Earths, through a gross revenue royalty with step-ups if production is delayed, alongside a small equity stake that aligns Ecora with project progress while preserving downside protection.