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Written by Curation

Where conviction is forming

Once a month, our expert investor community meets for a virtual “Open Mic Night”, providing a real-time snapshot of how positioning is evolving into Q2,

Every week, we tap into real conversations had by our pro investor community, the Curation Collective, recapping their high conviction themes, macro views and market sentiment, so that you can make more informed investment decisions.

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Where conviction is forming

What was said:  Once a month, our expert investor community meets for a virtual "Open Mic Night", providing a real-time snapshot of how positioning is evolving into Q2, the emerging themes being monitored, and the companies being researched.

The overarching tone of The Collective is cautiously constructive. Members are holding existing positions and waiting for macro clarity, but the direction of travel is already clear. Incremental capital is rotating into AI infrastructure, commodities and digital assets, with little to no interest in traditional allocations such as Europe, cash or defence.

What stood out was the consistency across ideas. The strongest pitches were not driven by narrative, but by scarcity and capacity. Seismic data, compute infrastructure, energy systems and industrial inputs featured heavily, reinforcing the shift towards the physical and digital foundations of the next cycle.

At the same time, the regime debate has narrowed. The discussion is no longer about whether markets move higher or lower, but whether we are entering a structural cycle driven by physical assets or a more selective risk-on environment layered on top.

Alpha generation is the clear priority. The focus has shifted decisively towards exploiting dislocations rather than broad market direction.

Why we give a ****: This is when and where conviction is being formed.

When multiple independent ideas point to the same part of the system, it is usually a signal, not a coincidence. The Open Mic reinforced that capital is moving towards what is constrained, not what is abundant.

At the same time, the opportunity set is changing. With macro uncertainty still elevated, returns are less likely to come from being broadly long risk, and more likely to come from identifying where price and underlying reality have diverged.

The implication is straightforward. The edge is no longer in predicting direction, but in understanding structure.

Follow where the ideas cluster, and that is where conviction is building.

Relevant stocks: LSE:CWR, VSE:BG, NASDAQ: IREN, NASDAQ:NVDA, EURONEXT:SU,

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Stock Of The Week

Licensing the Power Constraint

Ceres Power is an asset-light licensing play on solid oxide fuel cell technology, positioned at the centre of the growing demand for on-site power as data centres move behind the meter. Rather than manufacturing, Ceres provides the IP and collects royalties, allowing partners to scale production while it captures high-margin upside.

The key question is timing. The opportunity is large, with fuel cell demand expected to reach meaningful scale this decade, but execution sits with partners. As those partners begin to move toward production, Ceres shifts from long-dated optionality toward a potential cash-generative reality.

If scaling materialises, Ceres offers leveraged exposure to one of the most important constraints in the AI cycle: power.

CWR showcase

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